“Don’t Trust Your Gut” by Seth Stephens-Davidowitz

Stephens-Davidowitz is a self-described nerd and data scientist, who tries to quantify all the mysteries of life. In fact, he describes this book as “Moneyball” for your whole life. He has poured over reams of collected data to tease out what the averages say make the most statistical sense—sometimes the advice is intuitive and sometimes not. On dating, he reveals, “The qualities that are most valued in the dating market, according to Big Data from online dating sites—almost perfectly overlaps with the list of traits in a partner that don’t correlate with long-term relationship happiness…. In the dating market, people compete ferociously for mates with qualities that do not increase one’s chances of romantic happiness.” On parenting, Stephens-Davidowitz suggests, “the overall effect of most of the decisions that parents make add up to less than most people expect…. If parents face thousands of decisions and the parents who make far better decisions only have kids who turn out some 26 percent more accomplished, each of the thousands of decisions, by itself, can’t make a large difference.” However, the one decision that does make a lot of difference is what neighborhood one lives in. “Some 25 percent—and possibly more—of the overall effects of a parent are driven by where that parent raises their child…. The three biggest predictors that a neighborhood will increase a child’s success are: >> Percent of Residents Who Are College Graduates >> Percent of Two-Parent Households >> Percent of People Who Return Their Census Forms…. The right adult role models appear to be more influential than the right schools or booming economies…. Quite simply, it makes sense to expose your kids to adults whom you would want them to emulate.”

Stephens-Davidowitz peppers his book with numerous interesting tidbits. For instance, “Each additional inch nearly doubles one’s chances of reaching the NBA.” Also, “NBA players are more likely to come from middle-class, two-parent backgrounds.” On Americans’ income levels, he notes, “Wholesale beverage distribution is among a select group of industries in which a large percentage of owners enter the top 0.1 percent of earners.” The reason, “great business fields allow for the existence of many local monopolies.” A bit of a counterintuitive notion is that entrepreneurs are often more successful the older they start, “The average age of a business founder in the United States is 41.9 years old…. A sixty-year-old start-up founder has a roughly three times higher chance of creating a valuable business than a thirty-year-old start-up founder.” In life, looking attractive is important. “The person whose face was judged as more competent by the majority of subjects won 71.6 percent of the Senate races and 66.8 percent of the House races…. The biggest predictor of [a West Point] cadets’ career success was how dominant their faces appeared.” On wealth and happiness, “Doubling your income can be expected to increase your happiness by about one-tenth of a standard deviation.” Stephens-Davidowitz concludes, “The data-driven answer to life is as follows: be with your love, on an 80-degree and sunny day, overlooking a beautiful body of water, having sex.” Simple life advice.